Bitcoin's Bull Cycle and Accumulation Trends Signal Market Uncertainty

By: Eliza Bennet

Bitcoin's Bullish Upsurge and Ebb in Accumulation

Bitcoin achieved a staggering 280% rebound from its cycle lows around $15,500 in November 2022, to new all-time highs of approximately $73,000 by March 2024. Despite this, the market experienced several healthy corrections, including most recently a 23% retrace. However, Bitcoin's accumulation by various entities has not kept pace with its issuance, hinting that upward price pressure may decrease soon. This mixed situation makes the market's future unclear.

Market Correction and Accumulation Indicators

Some of the corrections included a 22% loss in March 2023, followed by a 20% drawdown that lasted from April to June 2023. Another 20% rollback occurred from July to September 2023. After the introduction of a Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, the market underwent a correction of just over 20%. Lastly, Bitcoin fell 23% from its peak in March 2024, reaching lows near $56,500 in early May.Selling pressure mounted only when it failed to clear the $65,500 resistance, signalling possible further near-term headwinds.

Slower Pace of Accumulation and Near-Term Market Predictions

Additionally, the monthly accumulation rate was below monthly issuance since May 1, indicating a lack of strong demand that could see upward price pressure dwindle in the coming weeks. This hint at slower buying pace, along with distribution across cohorts, suggests possible short-term headwinds for Bitcoin. Should Bitcoin's price fail to climb above the $63,500 resistance zone, it may face a near-term downside correction to the $60,000 support zone.