Post-Debate Market Reactions and Impact on Bitcoin

By: Isha Das

The recent presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris on September 10th avoided any mention of cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, despite touching on significant economic topics. The debate centered around traditional issues such as foreign policy, immigration, and abortion rights.

Prior to the debate, Trump had a slight lead in prediction markets, especially on Polymarket, a crypto-based platform, where his odds stood at 53% against Harris's 46%. However, following the debate, both candidates were tied at 49% each on Polymarket, illustrating a seven-point swing. As of now, a staggering amount of $865,183,218 has been wagered on the election outcome. In contrast, on PredictIt, a non-crypto market in the US, Harris's odds rose to 56%, while Trump's fell to 47%. Traditional betting sites have also seen Harris take a slight lead.

The impact of the debate was evident not just in the political prediction markets but also in the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin. After the debate, Bitcoin saw a drop of approximately 3%, falling from $58,000 to $56,100. However, it has since somewhat recovered to around $56,800. This drop coincided with the decreased odds for Trump in the prediction markets.

Interestingly, this event is not an isolated incident. On September 6th, Bitcoin had already experienced an 8% drop, coinciding with Trump's largest lead on Polymarket and close odds on PredictIt. This suggests that while there appears to be some correlation between Trump's electoral chances and Bitcoin's market movements, it is not entirely direct or consistent.

Despite the lack of discussion on cryptocurrency during the debate, the market's response underscores how investors and traders are keenly attuned to the election's unfolding and its potential repercussions on the crypto industry. Trump has voiced his support for the crypto sector in the past, whereas Harris has yet to clarify her stance on digital assets, showing a noticeable absence of crypto-related policies in her campaign documents.

As the election approaches, the crypto community will likely continue to monitor both candidates' standings and statements, anticipating any policies that could influence the market's direction and the broader adoption of digital currencies.