Potential Bitcoin Surge: Standard Chartered Forecasts Pre-Election High

By: Isha Das

Bitcoin's landscape is shaping up for a potential surge beyond $73,000 ahead of the U.S. presidential election, as outlined by recent analyses from Standard Chartered. The bank attributes this optimistic forecast to escalating ETF inflows and the rise in bullish call options, particularly the $80,000 Dec. 27 call option. Currently, there is an influx of around 916,000 BTC into ETFs, as covered by various financial sectors, which may indicate a forthcoming breakout in Bitcoin pricing as it edges closer to the election period.

The research, spearheaded by Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's head of digital asset research, suggests that the upcoming U.S. election could play a pivotal role in influencing Bitcoin's trajectory. Specifically, a Republican victory could usher in favorable crypto regulations, sparking enhanced market confidence and potentially pushing Bitcoin prices upwards. Kendrick points out that renowned Bitcoin holder MicroStrategy has also seen a notable rise in its stock performance, diverging from Bitcoin's otherwise stable price over the past weeks. This divergence is largely influenced by the company's significant BTC acquisitions and strategic position in the crypto market.

MicroStrategy's stock trajectory demonstrates a premium trending independently from Bitcoin prices; this shift can be attributed to potential regulatory changes, such as the upcoming Bank Custody Exemption Rule SAB 121. If institutions are permitted to lend out crypto assets like MicroStrategy's holdings, this could drive new income avenues and elevate the company's valuation. Moreover, the growing interest from banks such as BNY Mellon, expected to receive regulatory exemptions that favor cryptocurrency custodianship, is a harbinger of a broader institutional adoption momentum.

Kendrick posits that both potential presidential candidates, irrespective of their stance, could contribute to the digital asset's mainstream emergence. With Trump's administration widely seen as more advantageous for Bitcoin due to its proposed policies, including a national crypto reserve, Kendrick opines that Bitcoin could achieve heights of $125,000 by the close of 2024 if Trump wins. Regardless of the electoral outcome, the intricacies of regulatory developments and market dynamics emphasize a period of bullish outlooks for Bitcoin's future, consolidating its appeal as a sustainable asset class amid evolving financial ecosystems.