Speculations Rise on Biden's Withdrawal from Election Amid Crypto Discussions

By: Eva Baxter

Amid discussions surrounding cryptocurrency regulation, market speculation is growing that US President Joe Biden might withdraw from the upcoming presidential race following his performance in the first 2024 presidential debate against Donald Trump.

Keisha Lance Bottoms, soon to be Joe Biden’s senior campaign adviser, emphasized that cryptocurrency is a nonpartisan issue that has garnered support from across the political spectrum. Speaking at the Crypto Votes Atlanta event hosted by Stand With Crypto, Bottoms underscored the importance of fair and equitable regulation, advocating for financial inclusion that benefits underbanked communities. Bottoms, who has previously served as the Director of the Office of Public Engagement in the Biden administration and as Mayor of Atlanta, said the potential of crypto to empower marginalized communities is immense, especially in underrepresented sectors like Black-owned businesses in Atlanta.

On the other hand, online bettors on blockchain-based platforms such as Polymarket and prediction markets like Manifold have been actively speculating about Biden's chances of continuing in the presidential race. Following a subpar debate performance, the probability of Biden bowing out has surged to 38 cents against staying in at 63 cents on Polymarket, drawing in over $7 million in bets. Similarly, Manifold reported a sharp decline in Biden’s chance to secure the Democratic nomination from 94% to 68% within a day. Jim Bianco of Bianco Research pointed out that prediction markets provide real-time data on shifting sentiments, noting Biden's odds dropped significantly more than Trump's increased.

Analysts and market experts have questioned whether Biden can recover from what was perceived as a lackluster debate performance. Financiers like Jim Bianco suggest Biden may struggle to regain his footing, with calls from within Democratic circles for Biden to consider stepping down. Demetri Sevastopulo of the Financial Times highlighted that various Democratic lawmakers are contemplating an open convention to energize voters should Biden step aside. Potential candidates being considered in the event of Biden's withdrawal include California Governor Gavin Newsom, who has publicly supported Biden, and former First Lady Michelle Obama, alongside Vice President Kamala Harris.

The debate around Biden's candidacy and the role of cryptocurrency regulation continues, reflecting the broader uncertainties in both political and financial spheres. As Bottoms prepares to take on her advisory role for Biden's campaign, the intersection of these domains will be crucial for shaping the future economic landscape.